Sunny Monday

After a few scattered severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, today will be dry. The weak front that triggered the storms yesterday has pushed south of our area. Some areas had very dense fog to start the day today, but it has since burned off.

Look for mostly sunny skies this afternoon with high temperatures reaching the lower and middle 80s. It will become breezy this afternoon, with SW winds gusting to over 20mph.

Tonight clouds will be on the increase once again ahead of the next fast moving front. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms moving in after midnight tonight. Lows will be in the mid 60s.

Tuesday looks to be much like yesterday. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected throughout the area. A few of these storms could be strong, producing small hail and gusty winds. Highs tomorrow will be in the lower 80s.

Wednesday looks to remain dry at this point with afternoon highs in the lower 80s. As we head into Thursday and Friday, the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms returns to the forecast. The temps will not be quite as warm as originally thought, with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

Have a great Monday!

Late Thursday Weather Update

Radar continues to show a dying area of rain moving into western Franklin county and southwestern Colbert county. The NWS has upped the chance of rain to 40% for the rest of the night. I expect the rain to hold off here in the Shoals area until after 2 am.

Showers will continue on and off early on Friday, before more scattered showers and thunderstorms develop tomorrow afternoon.

Another update tomorrow morning.

Saturday Afternoon Weather Update

We had a mostly sunny day today across the Tennessee Valley, with warmer temps. I actually walked out to the mailbox this morning in short sleeves, and it felt very nice (even though it was only 39º!). The high today in most areas was in the mid 40s. The high here at my house was 46º.

We will see increasing clouds tonight ahead of an approaching upper level disturbance that is currently over the upper midwest. The latest computer models are actually showing a band of light snow and flurries moving into northwestern Tennessee around 6am Sunday morning. This band of light snow moves southeastward by noon, and will be falling apart. We may see a few snow flurries around the Shoals area by midday tomorrow and lasting to around 6pm. Areas in northeastern Alabama could see some snow showers tomorrow afternoon, but will only see a dusting at best. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 30s on Sunday.

Sunday night will be another cold one, with lows in the mid to upper teens once again. We will struggle to go much above freezing during the day on Monday.

The next chance of precip will be overnight Tuesday night and into Wednesday. According to the 18z GFS model, this precip will be in the form of rain, but surface temps may drop just below freezing by 6am Wednesday morning. I'm not going to buy into this much yet, but keep checking back to this blog and I will continue to post updates as we get closer to this.

After another front moves through on Wednesday, lows may be in the teens again by Thursday morning.

I'm not even going to make a forecast past Thursday at this point. Computer models have been all over the place these past few days, and I want to watch them a few more runs before even trying to make a forecast for the end of next week.

Stay warm out there.

Snow on Christmas??

It sure looks like it's possible. The computer models have been hinting of a changeover from rain to snow sometime Christmas late afternoon or evening. The lastest 18z GFS model shows rain moving into the Shoals area by midnight Sunday night. The rain will continue throughout the day on Christmas, most of it being light rain. I'm not expecting any heavy rain at this time. Then as the surface low pressure area moves off to the NE across Georgia, the colder air will move down from the northwest. Rain will change over to snow sometime between 1 and 4pm for areas west of here, like Memphis, Jackson TN and even Tupelo. The rain/snow line is all the way down to near Auburn at 6pm on Christmas. According to the lastest model run of the GFS, whatever precip we have falling after 5 or 6pm will be all snow. By midnight Monday it is still showing light to moderate snow for all areas north of Cullman. At 6am Tuesday morning, we may still see some areas of light snow or flurries. I'm starting to think it's possible we will AT LEAST see a dusting on the grass, cars, and wooden surfaces by Tuesday morning. I'm not getting excited about this just yet, but give me 24 more hours and if the models look the same, I won't be able to stand myself I'll be so excited.

More updates to come as this system develops...

Another cold night

We will have one more cold night before the slight warmup begins tomorrow. Lows tonight will be in the mid 30s in most areas, but the cold spots will be in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Wednesday will start out sunny, but clouds will be moving in during the afternoon hours. Highs will be warmer, in the lower 60s.

Rain will move into the area Thursday morning, and there is a chance of thunderstorms as well. The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked all of Alabama under a slight risk for Thursday. Stay tuned as I will be updating the forecast as we draw nearer. I haven't had a good chance to look at model data the past couple days as I have been busy with house repairs and late season yardwork.
Again, I apologize for the lack of posts lately, but I have been out doing my last yardwork of the year, and other stuff around the house. I will post another update in the morning with how cold it got.

Have a good night.

Another Rainy, Dreary Day

Well, it has been another sleeping day here in northwest Alabama. A low pressure area and associated cold front has produced widespread light to moderate rain across all of north Alabama. Here at my location the rain is finally coming to a end. My total rainfall for the day stands at 0.90". I'm still awaiting the arrival of the cold front. By looks of radar and current surface maps, it is just to my west. Temps drop off into the upper 40s as you go northwestward to Jackson, TN.

The rain will move out of the area for everybody later this evening, but cloudy skies will stay with us the remainder of the night. Expect low temps by morning to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area.

Friday will start out cloudy, but we will see clearing skies as the morning progresses. Afternoon highs will be on the cool side, in the lower 60s.



It will be cool for the Friday night football games tomorrow night, so take a jacket with you. The temps will drop rapidly after sunset with clear skies. Look for temps to be in the upper 50s for kickoff, dropping into the upper 40s to lower 50s by the end of the game. Lows by Saturday morning will be in the upper 30s to near 40 in most locations.

We will see a warmup on Saturday with partly cloudy skies before the next front moves in on Sunday. Highs Saturday will be near 70º, with lows Saturday night in the lower 50s. I did include a slight chance of showers on Sunday with the passage of the next front. Moisture looks limited at this point, but know Sunday's rain chances are subject to change. The front that moves through on Sunday will be stronger than the one moving through this evening, and high temps on Monday might not reach 60º in some spots. Monday night and Tuesday night look to be cold, with lows in the 35-40 degree range. Of course the colder locations like Black Creek in Etowah county (hey Vic!) will likely be in the upper 20s and lower 30s with frost.

Here is a look at the 7 Day Planner from yours truly....


Stay tuned to the forecast as things are subject to change with the cold front moving in on Sunday. Temps may not be as cold as I'm forecasting, but then again they may be a bit colder depending on the strength of the storm system.

Everyone have a great night and I will post another update in the morning.

Dense Fog Advisory...

...In effect for all of Alabama until 9am. Visibilities are down to a quarter mile or less in most areas this morning, so allow extra time for driving this morning. Here's what it looked like out my window this morning just after 8am..
http://bamaweather.com/wx/florence/forecast/drewcam.jpg

Look for partly cloudy and warm conditions today after the fog burns off. Highs will be in the 80s this afternoon. Clouds will be on the increase tonight ahead of a cold front that will be moving through tomorrow. I will have a detailed extended forecast discussion a little later this morning when I have more time to look at the models. Until then, here is a glance of the 7 day planner I put together this morning.
http://bamaweather.com/wx/florence/forecast/10185day.png